Red Meat Markets in 2025: Volatility, Rebalancing and Cultivating Opportunities

By Iain Macdonald, Market Intelligence Manager at Quality Meat Scotland (QMS)

As ever, 2025 has been an interesting year in the red meat market, with many ups and downs. The beef and lamb sectors saw record farmgate prices, while pig prices are thought to have held above the cost of production. Nevertheless, each sector still faced significant challenges.

Beef

Looking back to the first third of 2025, there was an unprecedented surge in beef prices, with R4L steers lifting 28% between the final week of 2024 and the end of April 2025, reaching a peak of 722p/kg. This followed a 16% uplift in the second half of 2024 and meant prices peaked at more than double their level going into COVID-19. Strong demand for beef across the British Isles and Europe, coupled with perceptions of tightening supply, supported competition for cattle.

While the rapid price increases were welcome for cattle producers, they placed severe pressure on processing margins, likely contributing to an abattoir closure in June. The surge in farmgate prices eventually passed through to consumer prices. Although households allocated considerably more money to beef, the volume of demand fell back, and abattoirs reduced throughput. Meanwhile, some buyers reacted by seeking competitively priced beef from overseas, mainly Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Uruguay, offsetting lower imports from the EU.

Prime cattle prices quickly fell by more than 10% and then stabilised in the third quarter. Festive period buying gave a small boost to prices in November, before unwinding in mid-December. Finished cattle prices were around 8% below their spring peak but still up 18% on last year and 45% above the five-year average.

Prime cattle prices are set to average around 30% higher than in 2024, with the store market showing an even stronger rebalancing of 40–50%, generating a much-needed confidence boost for calf producers. However, this has signalled a squeeze on finishing margins this winter. According to IAAS data, store steer prices peaked at around £600 higher in autumn 2025 than in 2024, while the estimated value of an R4L steer carcase was up less than £500 year-on-year in November.

Sheep

In the sheep sector, the very strong domestic and export demand of 2024 continued in 2025. The annual average auction price at Scottish marts is likely to end the year around 5% higher than 2024 and 25% above the five-year average. However, there has been seasonal volatility in supply, with a surprisingly low level of slaughter in the first quarter followed by a surge in hogg availability for Easter, which carried on until after Eid al-Adha in June.

Despite good spring weather, there was only a slight upturn in lambing rates in Scotland, while rates continued to trend lower in England and Wales. After a firm start to new season lamb supply, numbers quickly tightened and remained behind 2024 levels throughout the autumn, reflecting the impact of a dry summer on lamb growth rates. Nevertheless, lower lamb crops in England and Wales more than offset the impact of a small increase in Scotland.

Externally, export demand remained strong in 2025, supported by falling EU lamb production and demographic change. In the first ten months of 2025, UK sheepmeat exports were up more than 11% year-on-year and accounted for nearly 32% of domestic production, up from 29% a year earlier.

Imports of sheepmeat to the UK rose by 4% in the first ten months of 2025, although they fell back in August, September, and October. Most of the growth reflected a near-50% surge in deliveries from Australia, where production has been at the top of a cyclical peak and improvements from the 2021 Free Trade Agreement were fully utilised. By contrast, less lamb arrived from New Zealand. Import prices were significantly higher than last year, yet this did not dampen overall volumes, highlighting strong demand.

Pork

For pork, 2025 was a softer year, with finished pig prices declining for a second year in a row. Nevertheless, prices ran 10–15% above the five-year average for much of the year and are thought to have held above the cost of production, continuing the slow recovery of producer finances from the 2021/22 crisis. In addition, productivity has continued to trend higher in GB, with 13.7 fattening pigs per sow in June 2025, up from 13 in 2024 and 12 in 2021.

Although GB sow numbers were down nearly 6% from 2024, fattening pig numbers remained relatively stable. Slaughter in GB edged 0.5% higher in the first eleven months, while increased carcase weights pushed up production volumes by 2%, building on the 3% uplift in 2024.

In Scotland, ScotEID data points to a 3% reduction in the number of pigs leaving Scottish farms for slaughter destinations in the first eleven months of 2025. However, abattoir throughput rose by around 3% in the same period, suggesting greater domestic retention of Scottish-born pigs and signalling some positivity in market conditions.

Pig producers’ confidence was affected by processing sector disruption in autumn 2025, with a backlog of pigs on farm resulting in an increased proportion of carcases outside the target weight range, facing pricing penalties. Average carcase value, however, remained similar to 2024 levels in November and December, with 3–4% higher weights offsetting lower per kilo prices.

The pig market was also affected by external factors. EU pig production rebounded this year, while exports to China faced headwinds from a well-supplied market. In September, additional tariffs were placed on EU pork due to a wider trade dispute between the EU and China, although these duties have since been reduced. In late November, Spain reported its first case of African Swine Fever, resulting in export restrictions and leaving extra Spanish pork on the EU market. Since September, a 20% pricing premium for GB pork has almost doubled.

UK exporters fared better in the Chinese market due to renewed market access for several UK sites, but trade data suggests that by September and October, UK exports began to face significant challenges.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Lower-than-expected prime cattle slaughter in 2025, coupled with a slight increase in the 2025 calf crop, points to the potential for a small rebound in throughput. Reduced beef cow numbers should continue to restrict the overall cow kill, though turmoil in the dairy sector could offset some of this pressure.

External pressures from the wider global market remain bullish. The USDA forecasts a 1.5% reduction in global beef output in 2026, ending a period of slow upturn. Production cycles in Australia and Brazil are expected to tip into downturn, while contraction is set to continue in the US and EU. Heightened competition for beef is forecast, driven by demand from the US, Korea, and the Philippines. Global imports are expected to reach nearly 20% of global production, up from 17% in 2021.

In the sheep sector, slow marketing and a jump in store lamb sales are likely to underpin the carryover of hoggs into 2026. However, England’s considerably lower lamb crop may limit the size of this carryover at GB level. External factors are likely to support the trade balance, with tight EU market conditions unlikely to change and Australia forecast to have passed its cyclical production peak. In New Zealand, elevated lambing rates have driven a 2% increase in lamb numbers, though slaughter is expected to stabilise.

While the pork market will enter 2026 on a soft footing, numbers are likely to tighten once the backlog of pigs is worked through, following the reduction in the GB sow herd in 2025. On the demand side, pork will remain a strong value option for consumers compared with beef and lamb. Globally, the USDA forecasts marginally higher pork output for 2026, but consumption growth is expected to slightly outpace production, while imports could rise in key markets such as Mexico, Japan, the Philippines, and Korea, more than offsetting a slight dip in China.

Summary

2025 has been a year defined by volatility and adjustment across red meat markets. Record prices improved confidence for beef and lamb producers but also exposed pressure points elsewhere in the supply chain, particularly around processing capacity, margins, and trade flows. As the industry moves into 2026, global supply constraints, shifting production cycles, and evolving consumer demand will continue to shape market conditions. While challenges remain, there are also clear opportunities for rebalancing, efficiency gains, and value growth across beef, sheepmeat, and pork.