Continuing low slaughter through the final quarter of 2025 supported prime cattle availability in Scotland at the start of 2026, with the latest population data pointing to early signs that supply‑side pressure may be easing slightly, albeit from a very tight base.
The number of males and beef‑sired females aged 12–30 months in Scotland was up 0.8% year on year, marking the first quarterly increase since July 2024. This improvement reflects subdued slaughter rather than any fundamental loosening of supply but nevertheless represents a notable shift after an extended period of decline.
Commenting on the latest position, Iain Macdonald, Quality Meat Scotland’s Market Intelligence Manager, said: “We are starting to see some marginal improvements in the headline population data, but it’s important to stress that this is coming off a historically tight base. The market remains very finely balanced, and while the pressure has eased slightly, cattle availability through 2026 will continue to feel restricted.”
Tightness remains evident in older prime cattle, although the rate of contraction has slowed, with numbers aged over 30 months down 2.7% from a year earlier. Availability in the key 18–24 month category was effectively stable for a second consecutive quarter, declining by just 0.1%. More positively, a 3.6% uplift in cattle aged 12–18 months should help support prime supplies in the second half of 2026, if current trends are maintained.
Store cattle markets remain finely balanced. Prices have made a strong start to the year at Scottish auctions, but availability of longer‑keep stores looks particularly tight. Numbers of cattle under six months were down 2.8% in January, suggesting constrained volumes at spring sales. While improved calf availability in England and Wales may soften competition from English buyers, limited Scottish numbers are likely to remain the dominant feature.
Under‑30‑month slaughter in Scotland fell faster during 2025 than population data alone would suggest, signalling reduced slaughter rates as producers responded to tight numbers and firm prices. Any partial rebound in slaughter rates during 2026 is expected to have only a limited impact, with modelling indicating that any increase in Scottish kill would be capped at under 1%. Reduced heifer kill, as producers focus on stabilising breeding herds, continues to restrain slaughter throughput.
Net outflows of cattle from Scotland remained elevated last year but eased slightly, helping to moderate the decline in kills at Scottish abattoirs. Lower movements to English farms and auctions in the second half of 2025 suggest that net outflows are unlikely to increase again in early 2026.
The breeding herd remains under pressure, although the pace of decline is slowing. In January 2026, there were 395,000 beef‑sired females aged 30 months and over on Scottish holdings, down 1.7% year on year, the smallest reduction since October 2022. Early‑March data points to a further easing in the rate of decline, although reduced numbers of beef‑sired females aged 24–30 months continue to limit short‑term recovery.
At a GB level, near‑term supply remains extremely tight. Numbers in the most important slaughter age groups were down 3% at 18–24 months and 6% at 24–30 months, driven largely by sharper declines in England & Wales. A stronger calf crop in spring 2025 is expected to support availability by summer 2026, but reduced heifer slaughter and ongoing herd contraction mean supply conditions will remain constrained in the meantime.
Overall, the latest indicators point to marginal improvement rather than recovery. While productivity gains and easing outflows have slightly improved the balance, beef cow numbers remain critically low, and supplies through 2026 are expected to stay tight, with any easing likely to be gradual rather than immediate.
Click here to read the full Quarterly QMS Cattle Supply Update for Q1 2026.