Lamb prices have remained above August’s seasonal low, despite auction throughput reaching a seasonal high in October. Quality Meat Scotland’s (QMS) Q4 lamb market update highlights firm demand and tight underlying GB supplies as key supports for the trade.
Prices have traded in the 320–330p/kg liveweight range during October, nearly 10% above last year and 25–30% higher than the five-year average. By the third week of October, prices were just over 30% below the new-season peak but had held up slightly better than has often been the case during the seasonally high period for supplies.
The strength of prices comes as estimated UK lamb market supply in the first nine months of 2026 was similar to last year. Higher imports offset lower domestic production and a slight uplift in exports, underlining the strength of demand.
Iain Macdonald, QMS Market Intelligence Manager, said: “Auction numbers have grown in Scotland this autumn, but smaller lamb crops in Scotland and England mean GB supplies remain fundamentally tight.
“Demand is also a key part of the picture. Overall, UK lamb availability was broadly similar to last year in the first nine months of 2026, yet prices have remained substantially higher. Imports have continued to rise despite higher costs, while export volumes dipped in the summer after a strong start, with the domestic market needing that supply as domestic production began to fall back.
“These market forces have also impacted the store trade, where a high level of competition for store lambs is a signal of finisher confidence.
“Looking ahead, marketings are likely to reach a pre-Christmas peak in December, before numbers potentially struggle to match year-earlier levels in early 2027. Tight supplies and firm demand should continue to provide support, although the impact of higher retail prices on sales volumes remains a risk to watch, along with the impact of a stronger pound on export returns.”
Smaller lamb crops limit scope for supply recovery
Following a sluggish summer, season-to-date auction sales have moved slightly above 2025 levels as throughput has built to a peak at Scottish marts in October. However, lamb slaughter at GB abattoirs fell sharply against year-earlier levels between July and September, with a smaller lamb crop and drought-related grazing constraints likely to have combined to slow marketings.
Scotland’s June Agricultural Census recorded a 1.6% reduction in the lamb crop despite a second consecutive slight increase in the ewe flock. England reported a 0.5% decline in lamb numbers. Together, these results point to fundamentally tight GB supplies this season, with limited scope for a production recovery following the unexpectedly strong 2025/26 season.
The store market provides an indication of confidence among finishers. Store lamb prices have risen by around 15% year on year, outpacing gains in the finished trade and signalling strong competition for stock, as store auction throughput has been slightly lower so far this season.
Domestic demand supports trade as import costs rise
After a strong start to 2026, UK export volumes eased through the summer. Lower domestic output contributed to the slowdown, while the pattern also points to a rebalancing of sales towards the home market.
Meanwhile, strong global lamb markets and production constraints have supported Southern Hemisphere prices, leading to significant increases in UK import prices this year. Imports have nevertheless continued to rise, providing a further indication of resilient domestic demand.
Outlook: seasonal peak ahead, but supplies remain tight
Lamb numbers are expected to remain seasonally firm in the coming weeks, with a pre-Christmas peak likely in December. Last year’s slow marketing pattern means autumn throughput could continue to look elevated in year-on-year comparisons despite this year’s smaller lamb crop. Numbers may then struggle to match early-2026 levels at the start of 2027.
Higher farmgate prices feeding through to retail prices could put sales volumes under pressure. However, lamb’s position as a more niche product means demand is generally less price-sensitive than for beef.
Imports are seasonally lower in the final quarter and could struggle to match last year’s volumes as Southern Hemisphere production slows. Alongside broader global market strength, this is likely to sustain import price inflation.
A tight EU market should continue to support UK export opportunities. However, exports have fallen back relative to production since the spring, and tight domestic availability may remain the principal constraint on export activity. A stronger pound could also squeeze export returns.
Overall, QMS’s outlook points to continued underlying support from tight supplies and firm demand, tempered by the seasonal increase in marketing, potential consumer price resistance and currency risks for exporters.
Read the full 2026 Q4 QMS Lamb Market Update