After an exceptionally strong spring, the Scottish lamb market has entered its seasonal summer softening period.
Prices have eased since the middle of June after holding firm for around a fortnight after the Eid al-Adha festival. In the first week of July, Scottish mart prices averaged just under £3.80/kg liveweight for new season lambs weighing 25.5-45.5kg, which is 19% lower than at their new season high. Prices at auction sales held on Thursday 9 July then showed a slight rebound.
Despite this being a decline from the seasonal peak, the market continues to demonstrate resilience, with prices remaining around 6.5% higher than at the same point last year and almost 25% above the five-year average for early-July.
Interestingly, these elevated prices have persisted despite a stronger throughput of new season lambs at Scottish auction marts, which has run comfortably above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. However, tighter overall lamb availability has helped cushion the market. This is largely because this season’s hoggs were marketed earlier than usual.
International trade continues to reinforce this positive outlook. UK lamb exports have remained strong, with volumes rising by 12% during the first third of 2026 while achieving stronger prices. Meanwhile, imports have remained broadly stable despite significantly higher costs. Production constraints across the Southern Hemisphere and firm global demand have pushed international lamb prices higher, making imported product more expensive and reducing competitive pressure on domestic producers.
QMS’s Market Intelligence Manager, Iain Macdonald, said: “Overall UK lamb availability during the first five months of the year is estimated to have been broadly similar to 2025, with heavier carcase weights increasing production and much of that additional output absorbed by stronger export demand. Given prices have remained historically high under these conditions, we can be confident that demand for Scottish lamb continues to be strong.”
Looking forward, historical trends show that, on average, lamb prices fall by more than a third between the seasonal peak and the autumn low, although there is variation from year-to-year, with 2025 showing an unusually soft seasonal decline. This year prices have already retreated by around 20% from their peak before the main increase in seasonal supplies has arrived.
In the coming weeks, lamb numbers are expected to increase sharply during July and continue building into August before growth slows towards the autumn.
Last year’s slower marketing pattern also raises the possibility that marketings could remain relatively elevated later into the autumn. Whilst it is too early to evaluate the size of this year’s lamb crop, indications from a modest increase in the breeding flock suggest overall production could broadly match last year’s levels, even if lambing percentages prove slightly less favourable.
Iain concluded: “Overall, the market appears to be entering the second half of the year from a position of considerable strength.
“Seasonal price declines are expected as supplies recover, but this is likely an adjustment from exceptionally high levels rather than the beginning of a sustained downturn.
“The combination of supportive export markets, constrained global production and relatively firm domestic demandprovides a solid foundation for the lamb market through the months ahead. In addition, persistent strong demand for Scottish lamb at home and overseas means there is a significant opportunity to produce and process more at home.”
QMS’s new economic modelling shows Scotland’s sheep sector could add around £77 million in output and £21 million in Gross Value Added (GVA) by 2032, driven by strong demand at home and overseas.
QMS’s Lamb Market Update for Q2 2026 – PowerPoint Presentation